By John Ricardo Munyegera
KAMPALA, Uganda – Wednesday 4th May 2016: Yesterday many reports circulated at first that Rt. Hon. Rebecca Alitwala Kadaga had sailed through in becoming the next 10th Parliament Speaker. Many people in her political group and supporters were busy celebrating until when Dr. Fredrick Tanga Odoi called a press conference and erased that political drama. In other words, Hon. Kato Lubwama in my opinion is in the right place as part of the drama club in the names of the Parliament of Uganda. Has one ever reminded himself on what’s at stake for both Rt. Hon. Rebecca Kadaga and Hon. Jacob Oulanyah?
Both of these two like I recently said; are into the political murky-waters of the only visionary leader HE. Yoweri Kaguta Museveni. For both to sail through, it depends upon who and what is at stake politically. The next 10th parliament might need the irony hand of someone who can do whatever, the mighty leader wants. Even at the NRMO caucus to be held on tomorrow, I am told it will settle the matter after a rhetoric speech from the main man himself. I put it back to him that; his so good in the political game and someone might politically lose painfully. In my opinion; there are two examples of the pick and drop politics of the president.
Let’s ride on two examples here to understand why you never bank on President Yoweri Kaguta Museveni’s political game of backing you for a vacancy or not. In recent years, Museveni has thrown away his politically sworn friends like that. Don’t start the jubilations because one of the two might face the political dagger.
Someone might quietly remember the former Vice President, Hon. Gilbert Baalibaseka Bukenya aka Mr. Mahogany of upland rice. He was not expired politically and you can see his political fight backs on the assurance that the NRMO still loved him. The president assured him in a night call that he will support him in and out of court. Remember the Vice President crying in public when he was boarding for the infamous Luzira maximum prison, he was wondering what went wrong with the night call assurance. By then he was a giant elephant of NRMO in central Uganda and specifically Buganda.
He was indeed bragging of the fact that he was a Muganda, a catholic and supported by the number one citizen. What Museveni did as a pay back; he selected a Muganda and catholic like Mr. Mahogany Bukenya in the names of Rt. Hon. Edward Kiwanuka Ssekandi. As usual he played a noble game to maintain the position in Buganda and with a catholic Vice President. What that tells people in the speaker’s race; better think again. You might face Hon. Baalibaseka Gilbert Bukenya’s situation.
The second double edged sword in the NRMO politics is the case of Minister James Abraham Byandala and his Katosi corruption scandals. Actually some people know that, before he was taken to that ministry, the money had already been swindled therefore he was simply thrown in hot soup! That was a kick-start of the political blunders for the now infamous Hon. James Abraham Byandala here.
When the president saw that there was a lot of animosity in the Katosi road scandal; instead of throwing away Byandala from the cabinet; it came out that he was only transferred to another ministry. To a stranger in the NRMO recycled-bin politics; he might have thought that the president did a wrong thing to keep him in the cabinet because of the corruption scandal. It’s that wrong.
When the president still needs someone, he will do the needful to keep that person politically; but when you run out of the political utility; he will throw you straight to the ground and that will be the end of your political career. Do people still take either Bukenya or Byandala as serious politicians anymore? The answer is as good as your thought.
Most of the president’s political operations have been evident to the many people he has worked with in governing or ruling Uganda for the last three decades. The moment you think of these scenarios and how many have left the political scene; you might sympathize with both Kadaga and Oulanyah. Both have strong NRMO support in their regions therefore; you might not easily despise their political ambitions. Indeed Jacob Oulanyah in 2006 sacrificed his political career by crossing from UPC to NRMO. This yielded him great criticism but it was a cool political mathematics for the future. Even though he misses the speaker’s job, I opine he’s a confirmed minister.
That’s not enough also; there was an increasing support of the opposition especially FDC in northern Uganda, therefore his contributions are also well started. It also puts to the bills he helped discuss and pass in parliament in Kadaga’s absence. Somehow, that counts to the NRMO and Museveni especially him being royal NRMO servants while on the other hand the new northern NRMO support arrivals. That might be some good news for that camp.
Really in a thoughtful sought Kadaga’s works for the NRMO in Busoga and the rest others are quite out-standing. Even on the case for women, she has been the best advocate ever. Meanwhile, sorting out issues and supporting Museveni’s politics in the country especially ganging up Basoga people to vote for him in office as president of Uganda has been so great. Besides that, the continued evolution of NRMO together with Hon. John Patrick Amama Mbabazi is another case. He’s least expected to serve in the next government based on the fact that, he’s now a misleading figure in the NRMO politics. What about the Kadaga – Mbabazi fight?
Many of you remember that. Also the support from the Buganda NRMO caucus, the women members, the clot of the NRMO rebel MPs and the opposition leaders, who seem inclined with her, seems much more significant support. If per say out of 106 members of parliament from Buganda has at least 85 only; the 36 from Busoga where only Hon. Mbeiza from Kaliro doesn’t support her, then 112 women MPs if she has half of that together with the 36 opposition leaders.
She therefore needs more from western and south western Uganda. They might support her especially the Kigezi region because they also need her support and the members for Hon. Bahati for deputy speaker position. There’s much logic to that. What about the fight between the two great friends Hon. Theodore Ssekikubo and Hon. Mohammad Nsereko is another one which might divide the Baganda in parliament? Bahati might trounce them in the caucus since they are also NRMO rebel MPs. Therefore, I don’t see them winning even through the NRMO caucus. But anyway, let’s try to see that on 5th as well.
What if Museveni endorses both Kadaga and Oulanyah? That might break hell loose on the vote and I expect that Kadaga might win that vote. If she loses, then her political career is gone just like her opponent as well. The reason as to why that scenario might happen can be by the grace of God to drastically change the political situation in the country. As the country is in the defiant mood and swirls of desired changes in the government policies and functions; someone who appeals to the society than the political party or the president might be the best choice.