Crossing the line and standing in the line means the same to some people especially the East Africans. The next thing and talk about town is the arrival of baby South Sudan in the East African Community – EAC.
This EAC might be a great debacle in the near future if at all not revised. Besides that; the Ugandan business community yesterday (17th April 2016) were blocked from doing business (selling sugar) and instead have instituted a verification committee to confirm whether it’s true that Uganda has the capacity to supply Kenya with Sugar or its also doing business from the Brazilian sugar. This therefore shows another dimension of an economic mistrust.
The EAC has been a great student of the European Union – EU but the fact is that it’s crumbling into referendum exits, financial challenges and among others; this might be of the great risk to Uganda and the rest. Just like how Greece fall into the hands of Germany and the other economic allies to support or not do so yet they all know; it’s simply a consumer society with no famed modern industrialization.
What about poverty in the region? According to the Global Finance magazine (which bases on the World Bank data); Uganda is number 19, South Sudan at number 1; Rwanda at 17; Burundi at 5; and the United Republic of Tanzania at 25 are categorized amongst the poorest countries based on their GDP. Not only that; the World Bank data also adds that among the heavily indebted poor countries – HIPC; Uganda is among a group of 38 economically impaired developing countries with high levels of poverty and debt overhang which are eligible for special assistance from the International Monetary Fund – IMF and the World Bank. Besides that all these countries are prone to political instabilities. Uganda, Burundi and South Sudan are ever on the edge of political turmoil.
Recently on there were remarks at a UN Security Council open debate on prevention and resolution of conflicts in the Great Lakes Region drags us into a great political future confusion thus the peace and freedoms we enjoy today might be history. The U.S. permanent representative to the United Nations; Ambassador Samantha Power articulated the states in the region.
This was on the case of Rwanda; Uganda and indeed Democratic Republic of Congo. For the last 25 years; Rwanda has been a success story but what happened to her neighbors? If Rwanda is to achieve lasting peace and prosperity therefore it must be through a government based on democratic accountability, not centered on any one single individual.
What about Uganda? Since 1986, Uganda has been peaceful and security has been okay; through her contribution to the African Union – AU force in Somalia. Uganda hosts over 500,000 refugees, and they live like Ugandans. In the same perspective, on democratic accountability, rule of law and the militaristic and coercive police operations are paramount indicators to a failing democratization of Uganda. With the community; there’s a broader market. This is true as of over 150 million people but the challenge is what Uganda can put in that market? Nothing really! Besides that; there’s a great missing link between the political contestations in Uganda, than say to Kenyans and Tanzanians if they can associate themselves to that. Away from that; a stone in Lake Victoria / Nalubaale called Migingo is also causing a lot of lingering questions between Uganda and Kenya without forgetting the mishandling of this issue for the last 4 years.
The arrival of South Sudan: This country has been embroiled in the battle for leadership which sparked off the December 2013 civil war. These are the political contestations between the president, Salva Kiir and Riek Machar (the former vice president) over leadership of both the country and indeed the SPLM political party. The country also has higher levels of corruption; lack of rule of law; bad governance; weak governmental institutions; continued tribal conflicts and escalated levels of political challenges with common economic dilemmas. These might look inward problems but they directly affect the EAC because South Sudan is a member yet other members won’t feel safe associating with a country almost running into a civil war. The case of freedoms and rights of people are fundamentals which can’t be left out.
What about any economic hegemony in the EAC? Every association needs hegemony state or country to act as the guide to rest others. A power as to which others have to follow. In all contexts; hegemony is the social, cultural, ideological, or economic influence exerted by a dominant group. The dominant member of the European Union is Germany followed by the rest economically. For southern Africa; SADC, the hegemony is South Africa while Nigeria is the one for ECOWAS in West Africa. In the EAC, the hegemony therefore is Kenya. The rest are followers. When it comes to economic benefit in the EAC; Kenya stands tallest to the rest others as per her GDP and indeed in all aspects be it socially or politically. The only weird aspect is that; it’s also much more corrupt if we’re to go by the Transparency International corruption index reports.
Verdict on the political and economic landscape in the EAC: Away from the antagonistic politics in the region especially were the presidents of Uganda, Rwanda and Burundi are deeply entrenched in the theory of life presidency or need no information in relation to term-limits or good governance; Kenya and Tanzania are a class apart. Politically that’s the only thing the three countries can learn but in the economic aspects; Kenya benefits the most. In most cases we can borrow a leaf on the growing unemployment levels in East Africa; Kenya would have been affected but again when you trace the opening up of the
Besides corruption the next thing is concerning the debt crisis which will soon hit the many African economies. Let’s look at Kenya the hegemony of the EAC. In 2014; The Economist reported that; “Countries like Senegal, Côte d’Ivoire (less than five years after a government-debt default) and Zambia placed bonds worth as much as US $1 billion, with all the issues oversubscribed. Kenya’s record-breaking sale of US$ 2 billion in debt was oversubscribed four times over.” There’s more to this debt problem in East Africa and indeed Kenya is not alone.
Before the addition of South Sudan; in 2014 (World Bank Data) Uganda’s debt stands at US$6.5 billion; the United Republic of Tanzania at US$14.5 billion; Rwanda at US$2.2 billion; Kenya at US$16.2 billion; while Burundi stands at over US$690 millions. These in a combination are a bigger financial problem in the community.
Also many EAC projects have almost failed to take off in some countries. Take for example the Standard Gauge Railway project; on paper and in discussions is a very good project but its implementation has various questions in Uganda per say. The project has delayed yet Uganda, Rwanda and Kenya were funded and supposed to commence the project by 2013. Besides that; there’s now brewing controversy over the oil pipeline between Kenya and Uganda as well as the Tanzanian case. Such infamous economic challenges are not at all in favor of the East African Community.
The EAC opened up the labor mobility in among East Africans but the dilemma in this is that who benefits? Is it East Africans or one country in particular? Let’s deeply look at this against the ugly fact of the increasing unemployment in the region. The literacy levels also in the EAC are also led by Kenya. Based on the World Bank data again; 90.6% in 2012 for Kenya; Uganda at 82.6%; Rwanda at 73%; Tanzania at 67% as Burundi trails with 62%. This therefore, puts to the argument that; Kenya benefits economically in the EAC than the rest others.
Kenya’s education system and the number of educated class of citizens with even graduate degrees are ahead of the rest in the region. Besides that; their workaholic attitude towards everything they run is just that enormous and we need to consider that together with their innovative skills. Uganda and the rest other EAC members lager behind leave alone Rwanda which in my opinion is also steadily taking a lead in the region!
We can digress and look at the case of industrialization in the EAC. There’s no case which can make any other economy ahead of Kenya. Uganda per say has become a consumer society other than an industrializing one. It’s too hard to change this; therefore; the job creation in Uganda is very low as compared to Kenya per say. This is indeed expressed in the 2010 EAC industrialization report which explains that Kenya was steadily rising while the rest others are followers. Actually they add that, Rwanda was de-industrializing while Uganda was simply trailing Tanzania.
These facts show that Kenya is ahead of the rest either politically or economically. Besides that, the few industries in Uganda per say produce similar products to those of Kenya and the rest therefore; there’s a bigger problem in the East African market. Presently, the contribution of the industrial base in the EAC region is estimated at about 19.2 percent of GDP, of which, only 8.9 percent is generated by manufacturing (UNIDO; 2011) but again many of these are from or in Kenya. Therefore, there may be many reasons why a Ugandan may have issues with this; as the “one people one destiny” rhetoric maybe another myth for many than a reality.